In a recent update, Swiss banking giant UBS has revised its forecast for the Polish Zloty (PLN), citing growing concerns over trade tensions and political risks impacting the currency's outlook. The analysis, released on June 18, 2025, highlights the potential challenges facing Poland's economy amidst a shifting global landscape.
According to UBS, the Polish Zloty could face downward pressure due to escalating international trade disputes, which may disrupt Poland's export-driven economy. As a key player in the European market, Poland is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in trade agreements and tariffs, especially with major partners like the United States and the European Union.
Additionally, political instability within Poland is contributing to the bearish outlook. UBS notes that the Polish government may struggle to advance its legislative agenda following the recent presidential election of Karol Nawrocki, which could further unsettle investors and weaken confidence in the Zloty.
On a more positive note, UBS also acknowledges potential support for the Zloty from the recent strength of the Euro, driven by Germany's planned increases in defense and infrastructure spending. This could provide a buffer if the Eurozone's economic momentum continues to influence neighboring currencies like the PLN.
However, UBS remains cautious, revising its USD/PLN forecast to reflect a weaker Zloty in the near term. Investors are advised to monitor both global trade developments and domestic political events closely as they navigate currency markets.
This forecast underscores the interconnected nature of global finance, where macroeconomic shifts and regional politics can significantly impact local currencies. As the situation evolves, market participants will be keenly watching for any policy changes or trade resolutions that could alter the trajectory of the Polish Zloty.
Andrew Lee
